Take a deep breath, and suspend your justified knee-jerk reaction at mentioning Trump before you read on, as I had to do in order to write this article.
There is much debate about the economic damage of Trump’s harsh tariff policies. Even though most tariffs have been suspended for 90 days, let’s go ahead with the scenario in which they go into effect. Many outcomes are still hazy, but one thing is clear, they will likely decrease consumption, especially in America. And in the world of overconsumption, isn’t that what so many of us who are concerned with sustainability want? The developed world, and the US especially, groans under the weight of cheap stuff that the current world economy, especially in Asia, overproduces, and that ends up in landfills. The cycle of planned obsolescence has sped up across the board, but especially in fashion, where we no longer talk about fast fashion from the likes of H&M, but about ultra-fast-fashion from the likes of the Chinese giant Shein. The consumers are doing nothing to change their shopping habits, so, as I have argued before, it will fall on the governments to regulate fast fashion. Unwittingly, Trump may be doing just that.
Let’s examine Trump’s policies in detail. The first thing that jumped out at me was not his tariff hikes, but the cancellation of the de minimis exemption on goods coming from China. This especially affects the ultra fast fashion giant Shein and the general cheap goods colossus Temu, which also sells plenty of clothes in the US. These two companies – by one estimation Shein is now the biggest clothing retailer in the world – have built their business models on shipping goods direct to consumers from China. The generous de minimis duty-free allowance of $800 on packages crossing into the United States has saved them billions of dollars and allowed to keep their prices low. The impact of the de minimis cancellation will most likely be significant, as the consumer who has been hooked on the drug of ultra low prices is also the most price-sensitive, and in all likelihood will most likely be the first to pull back spending.
Next, it’s worth examining which countries have been hit with the highest tariffs. These include China (145% at this point), Vietnam (46%), Bangladesh (37%), and Indonesia (32%), mass market apparel and footwear manufacturing giants. In all countries much of what is produced for consumption in the West is made in sweatshop conditions using exploitative practices. While there is no question that there will be economic cost to these countries, long term it may also force them to rethink their appalling labor practices. Meanwhile, price increases on goods from mass market juggernauts like Nike and Adidas, as well as big mid-market fashion companies like Ralph Lauren and Coach, should also decrease American overconsumption, as prices rise, in some cases as much as 40%, according to a recent Reuters article. This also means that the American consumer, whose confidence has been lowered due to inflation-inducing Trump’s policies, will most likely pull back from buying clothing, as they concentrate on purchasing necessities and saving. According to a preliminary report by the National Federation of Retailers, an American trade body, U.S. imports may fall by as much as 20% in the second half of 2025.
“Democratization of fashion” is how fast fashion companies and mass market purveyors of clothing have long defended their role in polluting the planet, arguing that cheap prices allow even the Western poor to buy style. This defense is nothing but a fig leaf, since the overwhelming majority of fast fashion consumers are middle class. Most of these clothes are worn a couple of times and discarded, ending up in landfills in Africa. One 2018 study estimates that by 2050 global consumption of clothing could more than triple. All the sustainability solutions can be boiled down to only one thing, we must buy less.
The messaging we get from the world today is deeply conflicting. Listen to the economists, and the economy must grow every year. Listen to the ecologists, and we are killing the planet because we make too much stuff. There must be a middle ground somewhere. Unwittingly, Trump may force us to find it.
